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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 15-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model