4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-N.Niemann. 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 44 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model