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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model