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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 40

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(:31) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-59-L.Masterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.77 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP