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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 16 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model