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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model