Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- MIA offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.266 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
MIA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 14-T.Sherfield for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 65 YAC MIA 6 – SF 0
- Q1 10:42 FG SF (10:42) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. MIA 7 – SF 3
- Q1 04:57 TD SF (4:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 4 YAC MIA 7 – SF 9
- Q2 10:20 FG MIA (10:20) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 10 – SF 10
- Q2 00:07 TD SF (:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC MIA 10 – SF 16
- Q3 02:57 FG SF (2:57) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on MIA-2-B.Chubb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 10 – SF 20
- Q3 01:18 FG SF (1:18) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. MIA 10 – SF 23
- Q4 14:35 TD MIA (14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play. 6 YAC MIA 16 – SF 23
- Q4 02:08 FG SF (2:08) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. MIA 17 – SF 26
- Q4 02:03 TD SF (2:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-57-D.Greenlaw at MIA 23. 57-D.Greenlaw for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – SF 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 16 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%
(10:42) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 46 for 20 yards (30-A.Ingold).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:01) 4-T.Morstead punts 63 yards to SF 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-R.McCloud to SF 23 for 14 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 23.
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Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 23%
(:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 86%
(10:20) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 28 for 14 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, 26-S.Womack).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:25) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 58%
(5:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 19. 25-X.Howard to MIA 19 for no gain (11-B.Aiyuk).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to SF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.
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Q3 SF 4th & 17 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:22) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 23 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum, 45-D.Flannigan-Fowles). PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 23.
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Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%
(5:06) 13-B.Purdy right guard to MIA 23 for 2 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
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Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%
(2:57) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on MIA-2-B.Chubb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%
(1:18) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%
(11:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 81Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(9:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to MIA 28 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson). 0 YAC
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Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 65%
(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at SF 33 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (57-D.Greenlaw).