Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:25) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.92 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model