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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 13-B.Purdy right guard to MIA 23 for 2 yards (92-Z.Sieler).

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model