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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on MIA-2-B.Chubb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model