4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 46 for 20 yards (30-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model