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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model