NO @ TB — 4th & Data

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-6 HC Todd Bowles

Monday 2022-12-05 · 20:15 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

42.0%

58.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

Andy Dalton (NO): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts
TB offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 22 15–29

–

TB 25 18–32

Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring

Juwan Johnson TE Out Ankle

Payton Turner DE Out Ankle

P.J. Williams CB Out Knee

Kentavius Street DT Questionable Illness

Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen

Malcolm Roach DT Questionable Illness

Bradley Roby CB Questionable Concussion

Pete Werner LB Questionable Ankle

Kevin White WR Questionable Illness

TB

Tristan Wirfs T Out Ankle

Mike Edwards S Doubtful Hamstring

Antoine Winfield S Doubtful Ankle

Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Doubtful Quadricep

Cameron Brate TE Questionable Illness

Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hip

Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring

Luke Goedeke G Questionable Foot

Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Foot

Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 16

–

TB 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:29 FG TB (6:29) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. NO 0 – TB 3
Q2 07:41 TD NO (7:41) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-G.Avery]. NO 6 – TB 3
Q2 00:25 FG NO (:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 10 – TB 3
Q3 02:49 FG NO (2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 13 – TB 3
Q4 08:06 FG NO (8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 16 – TB 3
Q4 03:03 TD TB (3:03) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TB 9
Q4 00:08 TD TB (:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

(6:29) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(4:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 24 for 5 yards (36-I.Yiadom; 49-Z.Wood).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 50%

(2:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

(14:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 32 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(12:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(5:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to NO 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed pushed ob at TB 40 for 42 yards (5-J.Camarda). NO-53-Z.Baun was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

(3:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-24-D.Washington.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

(:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(12:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 26 for 15 yards (49-Z.Wood).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

(2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 58%

(15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 11

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

(8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(7:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 17 yards (57-U.Gilbert, 29-R.White).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 44

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 48%

(5:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-46-A.Prentice.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.
See the full breakdown →

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