Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(12:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 26 for 15 yards (49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model