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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP