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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP