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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-46-A.Prentice.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP