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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model