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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 24 for 5 yards (36-I.Yiadom; 49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model