4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 57

New York Jets 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Conklin (39-C.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model