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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYJ
47.7%
MIN
52.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYJ offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than NYJ
  • Mike White (NYJ): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 23
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYJ

Ashtyn Davis S Out Hamstring
Michael Carter RB Doubtful Ankle
Cedric Ogbuehi T Doubtful Groin
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder

MIN

Ben Ellefson TE Out Groin
Christian Darrisaw T Out Concussion
Ross Blacklock DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 22
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:38 FG MIN (12:38) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NYJ 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 08:34 FG NYJ (8:34) 6-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:06 TD MIN (13:06) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – MIN 9
  • Q2 03:39 TD MIN (3:39) 2-A.Mattison up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – MIN 16
  • Q2 00:44 FG MIN (:44) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NYJ 3 – MIN 20
  • Q2 00:13 FG NYJ (:13) 6-G.Zuerlein 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 6 – MIN 20
  • Q3 09:47 FG NYJ (9:47) 6-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 9 – MIN 20
  • Q3 01:03 FG NYJ (1:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 12 – MIN 20
  • Q4 12:33 FG NYJ (12:33) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 15 – MIN 20
  • Q4 08:40 TD MIN (8:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – MIN 26
  • Q4 06:49 TD NYJ (6:49) 5-M.White left end to MIN 1 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum; 39-C.Sullivan). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.White left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 21 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (12:38) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (8:34) 6-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (7:16) 14-R.Wright punts 39 yards to NYJ 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:07) 7-B.Mann punts 37 yards to MIN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 37%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn to NYJ 42 for 7 yards (1-A.Gardner; 57-C.Mosley).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:57) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Conklin (39-C.Sullivan).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (:44) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 55%

    (:13) 6-G.Zuerlein 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:06) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 39 for 14 yards (98-D.Wonnum, 25-T.Jackson).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (9:47) 6-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:23) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to NYJ 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios ran ob at NYJ 29 for 15 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (12:33) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (6:49) 5-M.White left end to MIN 1 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum; 39-C.Sullivan). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.White left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:38) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to NYJ 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

    (3:48) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle to 84-C.Davis to MIN 16 for 31 yards (24-C.Bynum).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 10-B.Berrios (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:30) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to MIN 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [98-D.Wonnum] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 6 for 5 yards.