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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 42

New York Jets 3 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(:13) 6-G.Zuerlein 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.71 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model