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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 39 for 14 yards (98-D.Wonnum, 25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model