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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model