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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 15 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 5-M.White left end to MIN 1 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum; 39-C.Sullivan). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.White left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model