Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 97

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New York Jets 22

(1:30) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to MIN 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.21 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 97, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model