4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 14-R.Wright punts 39 yards to NYJ 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP