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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-87-J.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model