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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

SEA
72.7%
LA
27.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: John Wolford (LA) -0.302 vs Geno Smith (SEA) +0.145 EPA/dropback (LA starting John Wolford in place of Bryce Perkins)
  • SEA offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • John Wolford (LA) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
LA 18
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SEA

Josh Jones S Questionable Illness
Ryan Neal S Questionable Elbow
Travis Homer RB Questionable Illness

LA

Aaron Donald DT Out Ankle
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
Terrell Lewis LB Out Back
Lance McCutcheon WR Out Shoulder
Matthew Stafford QB Out Concussion
Troy Hill CB Questionable Groin
Brian Allen C Questionable Thumb
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
LA 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 TD LA (9:35) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 06:14 TD SEA (6:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – LA 7
  • Q1 02:37 FG LA (2:37) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. SEA 7 – LA 10
  • Q2 09:54 TD SEA (9:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – LA 10
  • Q2 01:00 FG LA (1:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. SEA 14 – LA 13
  • Q3 07:38 FG SEA (7:38) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – LA 13
  • Q4 13:02 FG LA (13:02) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. SEA 17 – LA 16
  • Q4 06:49 FG SEA (6:49) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – LA 16
  • Q4 03:01 TD LA (3:01) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – LA 22
  • Q4 00:41 TD SEA (:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 26 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (2:37) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 28 for no gain (83-D.Young). PENALTY on LA-96-K.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:07) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 17 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to LA 29, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 37 for 8 yards (35-J.Blount).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%

    (1:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:37) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-87-J.Harris.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 18 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (7:38) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:00) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (13:02) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:49) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 37%

    (4:33) 13-J.Wolford left end ran ob at SEA 35 for 14 yards (27-T.Woolen).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass deep middle intended for 15-T.Atwell INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Barton at LA 41. 57-C.Barton to LA 31 for 10 yards (18-B.Skowronek).