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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model