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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model