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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model