4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP