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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 13-J.Wolford left end ran ob at SEA 35 for 14 yards (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model