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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model