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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 42

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce up the middle to DAL 40 for 2 yards (95-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model