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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 17.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU
15.7%
DAL
84.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.201 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.164 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Davis Mills in place of Kyle Allen)
  • DAL offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
DAL 30
Projected margin: DAL by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

HOU

Nico Collins WR Out Foot
Brandin Cooks WR Out Calf
Kurt Hinish DT Out Shoulder
Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring
Justin McCray C Questionable Hamstring
Troy Hairston FB Questionable Chest

DAL

Anthony Brown CB Out Achilles
Leighton Vander Esch LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 TD DAL (11:25) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 05:36 TD HOU (5:36) 31-D.Pierce right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – DAL 7
  • Q1 00:22 FG HOU (:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – DAL 7
  • Q2 12:34 TD DAL (12:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 20-T.Pollard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – DAL 13
  • Q2 02:30 TD HOU (2:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep right to 19-A.Rodgers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – DAL 14
  • Q2 00:44 FG DAL (:44) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. HOU 17 – DAL 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 20 – DAL 17
  • Q3 03:07 FG HOU (3:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 23 – DAL 17
  • Q4 14:54 FG DAL (14:54) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. HOU 23 – DAL 20
  • Q4 00:46 TD DAL (:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-53-B.Cashman at DAL 24.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:39) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 28 for 12 yards (33-D.Clark).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce up the middle to DAL 40 for 2 yards (95-J.Hankins).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:47) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 21 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 9 yards (15-C.Moore).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (:44) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (8:23) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 2 for -1 yards (25-D.King, 48-C.Harris).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 71%

    (3:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:49) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 38 for 4 yards (2-T.Thomas; 25-D.King).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%

    (14:54) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:16) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 41 for 21 yards (57-L.Gifford). PENALTY on HOU-1-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (8:10) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-15-C.Moore.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:25) 6-J.Driskel right end to DAL 2 for 1 yard (96-N.Gallimore; 42-A.Barr).