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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 21 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP