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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 35

Houston Texans 20 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model