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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 38 for 4 yards (2-T.Thomas; 25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model