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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 23 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 6-J.Driskel right end to DAL 2 for 1 yard (96-N.Gallimore; 42-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model