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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-53-B.Cashman at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model