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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-D.King to HOU 28 for 12 yards (33-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model