Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(12:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to KC 24 for 1 yard (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model