4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
68.9%
DEN
31.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.071 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.320 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
DEN 19
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

KC

Joe Thuney G Questionable Ankle
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Hamstring

DEN

Dakota Allen LB Out Hamstring
Andrew Beck TE Out Hamstring
Courtland Sutton WR Out Hamstring
Eyioma Uwazurike DE Questionable Illness
Justin Strnad LB Questionable Knee
D.J. Jones DT Questionable Shoulder
Dalton Risner G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 34
–
DEN 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:00 FG KC (11:00) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 02:57 FG KC (2:57) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 14:28 TD KC (14:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – DEN 0
  • Q2 07:23 TD KC (7:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – DEN 0
  • Q2 04:43 TD KC (4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 89-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at DEN 47. 50-W.Gay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-B.Johnson was injured during the play. KC 26 – DEN 0
  • Q2 01:38 TD DEN (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:14 TD DEN (:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – DEN 13
  • Q3 13:16 TD DEN (13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 37-M.Mack for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – DEN 20
  • Q3 00:45 TD KC (:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Browning]. KC 33 – DEN 21
  • Q4 10:54 TD DEN (10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – DEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%

    (11:00) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 49%

    (5:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 84%

    (2:57) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to KC 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to KC 24 for 1 yard (6-P.Locke).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 44%

    (4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 89-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at DEN 47. 50-W.Gay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-B.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:45) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to KC 31 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 62 yards to DEN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-M.Washington to DEN 27 for 21 yards (13-N.Johnson, 6-B.Cook).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:28) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to DEN 48, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to DEN 41 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).