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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 45

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 89-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at DEN 47. 50-W.Gay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-B.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.39 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model