Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 21

(11:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model