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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 71

Denver Broncos 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP