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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 62 yards to DEN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-M.Washington to DEN 27 for 21 yards (13-N.Johnson, 6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP