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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP